Winter is coming

After over a month of rain and favorable conditions, the Cantareira System has recovered somewhat. During the first week of April 2015, the reservoir was already at 19.3% of its reserve capacity. ANA and SABESP pointed out in December 2014, with a conservative estimate, the Cantareira System would reach 97.4 million cubic meters in April 2015. It is a little strange to estimate rainfall patterns and water volumes four months in advance for complex phenomena, and as we can see, they were completely wrong. The stored water volume has now reached 183.5 million cubic meters, and fortunately, this is a sigh of relief to Sao Paulo.

The question going into every mind is clear: we are finally back to normal?

I think we cannot know the answer to that question. For complex systems we cannot know what will happen or predict the future. What we know is that winter is coming (a recall for Games of Thrones theme alert and constant surveillance), and winter in Sao Paulo is a 6 month dry season. The other thing we know is that São Paulo water management is weak, making decisions on bad science and leaving the higher political pressure influence their actions. I rarely doubt that this combination will help solve this water crisis. What we need is less politics, less talking in media, less promises, and more serious preparation, more serious investments, more research and more stakeholder and consumer engagement to the future challenges that are to come...