The mismatches in scale between the water management agencies and the Cantareira system in Brazil

Sao Paulo is currently facing the severest drought in 80 years, with supply interruptions in the metropolitan area, rationing and dwindling water reserves. Since my last post 3 week ago precipitation have increased a little bit in the region. In November it rained around 135 mm in the Cantareira region (in October it rained 42,5 mm), but still a bit under the annual month average of 161 mm, becoming the tenth month below the average during the year. It is the eighth consecutive month with rainfall lower than expected.

Although this post is not only about the lack of rain, instead, I will here mainly discuss the scale mismatches between the water management agencies and the Cantareira system as an important factor to understand this crises. Cumming et al stated already in 2006 that scale mismatches result from changes in either the scale of environmental variation, the scale of the social organization responsible for management, or both. In other words, they can arise from the internal dynamics of social and ecological systems respectively, or from the dynamics of the social-ecological interaction. As we can see in this case the social system (Sao Paulo) is experiencing water disruptions. People and industries are complaining about lack of water supply and bad quality of water. On the other side, precipitation and rain levels are showing anomalies, not filling up the water levels of the Cantareira system. So which are the mismatches leading to this?

The first mismatch 

Sabesp supplying fossil fuel to pump out
water from one reservoir to another

Sao Paulos water management infrastructure, plans and solutions are old and insufficient to the efforts that are now needed. Sabesp have largely focused on smaller scales (in and around Sao Paulo), trying to control specific input and output variables of surface water, rather than focusing on the entire precipitation and consumption system that stretch far away from its jurisdictionary approach.

The second mismatch 

Precipitation levels in the region have always been cyclical, not linear, and disturbance has been an important part of development of the regions biophysical system. The Cantareira System was supposed to handle this by a series of different reservoirs located in different regions, supplying each other in time of crises. However, with the increase in the scale of consumption and environmental variation, Sao Paulos water management simple cannot take into account disturbance anymore. 

The third mismatch 

The state and the federal agencies have been the major actors involved so far, constantly exchanging and debating of what should be done, and releasing accusations over what have not been done. This approach, with no actually platform for dialogue with other stakeholders, such as rural producers and NGOs that work more directly on the field, is a sever mismatch that needs to be resolved.

Concluding, the scale mismatches is part of a broader problem of developing flexible learning institutions that can change and adapt to a changing environment. This is something that is not happening in Sao Paulo. Water management institutions have not show any signals that they what to change their approach on the crises. The Federal National Water Agency (ANA) recently gave Sabesp the authorisation to withdraw further 30 million cubic meters (m³) of water from the Cantareira system technical reserve (which I talked about in my last post). ANA also pointed out that Sabesp will use a "conservative forecasts of stream flow" which will let the system to reach 97.4 million cubic meters in April 30, 2015. We'll, lets see what happens when we meet that date!

Source: Cumming, G. S., D. H. M. Cumming, and C. L. Redman. 2006. Scale mismatches in social-ecological systems: causes, consequences, and solutions . Ecology and Society 11(1): 14. [online] URL: http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol11/iss1/art14/

Water crises in São Paulo, Brazil

                                                                   

Me visiting one area of the dry reservoirs outside Sao Paulo
end of October, 2014. Photo Daniel Meyer

This blog starts with a subject of vital importance for life: Water. 

During one of my recent working trips to the city of São Paulo (end of October) I took the chance to visit the outskirts of this large metropolitan city. I wanted to take a look, and some photos, of its water supply system - Sistema Cantareira (Cantareira system), featuring declining water levels due to a 13-month drought. Composed by a series of different reservoirs and tunnels, the system was constructed in the 60-70ths to satisfy the needs of an expanding urban population and a growing industry. It’s according to many specialists one of the most efficient and modern water supply systems in the world. 

A dock without
its boat.
Photo Daniel Meyer

The south-eastern region of Brazil is, however, experiencing its worst drought in 80 years and this is taking a hit on the Cantareira system. Rain has been very scarce during 2014. Seven months have passed without the system registering any increase in water levels. The last time the reservoirs volume increased was on April 16. On occasion, the reservoirs rose from 12% to 12.3%. With rain up to 70% below average during the last summer (rain season in the State of Sao Paulo), the water level of Cantareira system has now reached critical levels. If the precipitation anomaly repeats itself this summer (December – March) there is a great risk of a collapse in Brazils largest city.

Already in May this year the situation was alarming, with water levels dropping to 8.2%. At that time, and in order to avoid rationing, the state water utility Sabesp (joint venture between (50.26%) the state of São Paulo, (25.5%) Bovespa Bank and (24.2%) the New York Stock Exchange) - spent 80 million reais ($33.6 million) to tap so-called technical reserves (water below the level tapped through gravity). 

Sabesp pumping up the technical reserve (dead volume)
Photo Daniel Meyer

Despite this measure, in November, almost all reservoirs were showing a decrease of 0.2% per day. And at least 60% of residents of São Paulo have complained of lower flows from their taps during the past months. Schools and hospitals, and even some industries, have started to slow down their activities. Moreover, the technical reserve has been entitled by environmentalist as a ”dead volume” as it contains sediment pollution and heavy metals.

But how could it be that water reservoirs of one of the world largest cities are turning out into a dried-up bed of cracked earth? Some interlinked factors have been raised to explain the water crises:

- To much consumption and dependency on stable rain patterns

Low levels of one of the reservoirs. Photo Daniel Meyer

Its not news that São Paulo metropolitan area, with its 20 million inhabitants, major financial centres and powerful and energy consuming industries, is a very high water consumer. Consequently, it’s very dependent on the summer rains to fill up its reservoirs, as during the winter (dry season), water demand is much greater than water supply. 

- Management problem
The state government and its joint partners seems definitely to have failed in measures and preventive actions of this water crisis. The major measures taken so far is to give consumers a "bill discount" for those who reduce their water use, as well as pump up water reserves. Furthermore, 10 years ago, when permission to withdraw water Cantareira was renewed, the contract demanded the creation of alternatives. However, according to recent investigations, the company that manage Cantareira continued to withdraw the same amount of water from the system without creating new investments in other areas. Moreover, according to some studies, there are many water leakages in the city pipes, and most of the São Paulos sewage is not even treated (according to some studies 64 cubic meters of sewage is produced per second by the city, while only 33 m³ / s is treated).

- Deforestation and flying rivers

The State of São Paulo is basically formed by the Atlantic Forest and Cerrado biomes which help regulate amounts of moisture in the air. Most of its natural vegetation and forest has however been deforested since the arrival of europeans, mainly due to agriculture activities such as coffee, pastures and sugar cane. Today the landscape in the region is very fragmentised and show large deficit of forest areas (in violation to the environmental law). Another theory, launched in 2009, by the scientist Antonio Nobre from the Center for Earth System Science - CCST / INPE, warned that decades of deforestation in the far away Amazon forest could also be interfering with amounts of moisture in the air, as the Amazon forest function as a giant water pump which generates large amounts of water which circulates in the west and south of Brazil. Without these "flying rivers" Noble said, the area responsible for 70% of the GDP of South America could effectively become a desert.

Dry parts of one of the reservoirs.
Photo Daniel Meyer

Concluding, taken into consideration that São Paulo is one of the most populous (20 million) metropolitan areas in the world, and is the engine of Brazil's economy with a water depent industry (agriculture, food and fibre, car and truck manufactures etc.), a complete water rationing here would probably have unimaginable consequences. Such situation has however not yet appeared and water is still available in and around the city. But with the reservoirs (water levels currently at 10%) showing a decrease of 0.2% per day, and with 60 % of residents having experienced at least one outage in the last months, you don't need rocket science to understand what might be looming in the horizon. The passive stance, however, taken by authorities until now (bill discount for less consumption and pumping up water reserves) shows that politicians are still betting that this 13-month drought is part of a shorter cyclic phenomenon, putting their hope on the upcoming summer rains. Despite, what we need here are much more comprehensive and innovative actions, stretching far away from the boarders of the Cantareira system and old water management paradigms.

Finally, driving back from the Cantareira system, I found out that my rented car was full of dirt from the muddy roads along the reservoirs. At the car rental office the manager told me it was ok as they were only using wet cloths to clean the cares due to water consumption restriction imposed by the company. At least a glimpse of hope I guess. 

Check out the Cantareira System water levels by accessing Sabesp homepage:<http://site.sabesp.com.br/site/Default.aspx>